By: Michael Bratton and Eldred V. Masunungure
Date of publication: 2018
Zimbabwe’s presidential race tightens one month ahead of July 30 voting
Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 223
For the first time in a generation, Zimbabweans will vote in presidential, parliamentary, and local government elections on July 30, 2018 without the name of Robert Mugabe at the top of the ballot. Instead, the race for the presidency – the top prize in Zimbabwean politics – will pit Mugabe’s long-time collaborator, Emmerson Mnangagwa of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), against newcomer Nelson Chamisa, who, with the death of Morgan Tsvangirai in February 2018, inherited the leadership of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T Chamisa and MDC Alliance).
At least on the surface, the 2018 election is unfolding in a somewhat more open political atmosphere than the country’s previous contests, which were often marred by violent intimidation and disputed results. The opposition has been permitted to campaign throughout the country, and access to the election proceedings has been granted to a wide spectrum of international observers. But undercurrents of concern remain about the independence of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, the illicit distribution of public largesse by the ruling party, and the unknown intentions of the security forces, which in the past have repeatedly shored up ZANU-PF against any loss of political power.
Against this backdrop, Zimbabwean voters wonder whether 2018 will break the mold of past elections by ushering in the country’s first-ever alternation of presidential leadership. Certainly the electorate longs for a leader who can bring an end to four decades of economic mismanagement and rising poverty. In response, both Mnangagwa and Chamisa are campaigning on messages of economic reform and job creation. But a skeptical citizenry has every reason to question the sincerity and feasibility of politicians’ easy promises and, in the absence of unbiased information from a polarized and partisan press, to wonder which political party is actually ahead in the quest to occupy the top offices of state.
This dispatch reports results from a survey of public opinion on the status of the electoral race conducted one month before the day of voting with a representative sample of 2,400 voting-age adults drawn from all 10 provinces of Zimbabwe. The survey was commissioned by the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation, Afrobarometer’s core partner in Southern Africa, and implemented by the Mass Public Opinion Institute, Afrobarometer’s national partner in Zimbabwe.
This pre-election survey reflects the public mood at the time of fieldwork between June 25 and July 6, 2018 (henceforth “early July”). In order to capture the changing nature of the electoral landscape, the latest results are compared with results from a baseline survey conducted some two months earlier, between April 28 and May 12, 2018 (“early May”). The baseline (“early May”) survey occurred before party primary elections, the release of party manifestos, and the June 14 nomination of candidates. The final (“early July”) survey was different in this sense: Voters knew their candidates and where they purportedly stood in policy terms; as possible participants in primary elections, voters may even have had a hand in selecting candidates.
The margin of sampling error in both surveys was +/-2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.