Low voter turnout, combined with the rising number of unregistered voters, suggests that our democracy is becoming increasingly unrepresentative, writes Mikhail Moosa.

While the votes are tallied, it is possible to make a bold prediction on the outcome of the local government elections: at least half of the adult population will not be represented by the results. Instead of focusing on which party governs in particular areas, the low levels of voter registration and turnout suggest that there is a more fundamental question to ask after these elections: How representative is our democracy?

The core principle of democracy – translated literally as ‘people power’ – relies on public participation. South Africans understand the importance of majority rule better than most. So how did an election occur with only a minority being represented?

Trends in turnout

Voter turnout is equally as important as calculating parties’ vote share for interpreting election results. The degree to which people feel free or compelled to participate in elections indicates public confidence in institutions.

In the infancy of South Africa’s democracy, voter turnout was high. The iconic images of snaking queues in 1994 were testament to the long struggle for equal political rights. Between 2009 and 2019, however, voter turnout at national elections declined from 77% to 66%. Turnout at local elections was steady, but low, in both 2011 and 2016 at 58%.

But voter turnout only tells half of the story of who votes in elections. Turnout is measured as the share of registered voters who vote on election day. What about all those who are not even registered to vote?

A silent majority?

Over the last decade, the size of the voting age population has grown considerably faster than the length of the voters’ roll.

As an example, if unregistered voters counted as a single voting bloc in 2019, they would have won more seats in Parliament than the DA and EFF combined. For the recent elections, the IEC declared that there were just over 26 million registered voters. For context, there are roughly 40 million adults in South Africa, so only two-in-three adults are registered to vote.

Early indications from the IEC suggest that voter turnout in Monday’s poll was low, although the exact figure will remain elusive until all votes are counted.

If 50% of voters turned out in the local government elections, roughly 13 million votes would be counted. Additionally, there would be an equal number of registered voters who did not cast their ballots, as well as a slightly larger share of adults who have not registered to vote.

At this level of turnout, close to 27 million adults will not have exercised their democratic rights to elect their representatives.

Local government councils across the country will be elected and formed with only a minority of the public’s input. A voter turnout of 50% would represent a political crisis far beyond internal party factions or the messy business of coalition-building.

Low voter turnout, combined with the rising number of unregistered voters, suggests that our democracy is becoming increasingly unrepresentative.

Trust deficit

One of the primary reasons for low voter registration and turnout levels is the lack of trust between citizens and their representatives. Public opinion data from the 2021 Afrobarometer survey shows that most South Africans’ have little trust in their representatives. This perception is more negative now than it has been over the last decade. Most respondents to the 2019 South African Reconciliation Barometer agreed that voting is pointless because all parties are the same, and many South Africans believe that their vote makes no difference.

These surveys cannot claim to represent the views of all South Africans, but they are nationally representative and offer a broad overview of public sentiment. After a decade where unemployment has risen, gains in poverty reduction have reversed, and government corruption has gone largely unpunished, South Africans are presented with a Hobson’s choice between voting for political parties perceived by many to be untrustworthy or not voting at all.

The unrest from July has viscerally shown the consequences of a leadership crisis, where citizens feel unhappy with their circumstances and ignored by their representatives.

Millions of people are increasingly opting out of the voting process. While political parties eagerly interpret the results of the election, who will represent the non-voters?

To fully understand the state of our democracy, it would be prudent to reduce the partisan noise and instead to listen to those who are choosing not to vote. Non-voters may be our silent majority.

– Mikhail Moosa is the Project Leader for the South African Reconciliation Barometer at the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation